Understanding the aspirations of rural households for better projects and programmes: A timeline

Understanding the aspirations of rural households for better projects and programmes: A timeline

What do people in rural agricultural communities really want their lives to look like? What are the drivers that matter to those who farm? Understanding the aspirations of all members of smallholder households – particularly women, youth and marginalized groups – is key to avoiding bias and ensuring the success and sustainability of development initiatives.  

This timeline highlights milestones in efforts to better understand the aspirations of rural farming households in Africa. It features unique perspectives, lessons learned and insights drawn from multiple research projects and initiatives through an ongoing long-term cross-disciplinary collaboration.

Get in in touch if you want to learn more

2024
Aspirations, ambitions and the adoption of diverse fruit trees – a case study of the livelihood effects in Kenya
Abstract/Summary

Current food production systems all over the world face numerous challenges. Particularly smallholder farming in sub-Saharan Africa is in substantial need of sustainable solutions. Yet, the adoption of already existing sustainable agricultural practices such as agroforestry often remains low. This paper aims to deepen the understanding of smallholders’ decision-making processes for agroforestry adoption. Using the example of a CIFOR-ICRAF agroforestry project (Fruit Tree Portfolios), we examine the associated influences of ambition and livelihood aspirations on adoption and assess the impact of agroforestry on household well-being. We conduct several statistical analyses, including a logistic regression on the influence of ambitions and aspirations on adoption, and a linear regression with endogenous treatment effects and propensity score matching to assess the impact of adoption on well-being. The analyses are based on a primary data set collected from rural Kenyan households that participated in the project in 2021.

We confirm the inverted U-shaped relationship between ambition and the willingness to take proactive steps, in this case the adoption of agroforestry, and emphasize its relevance for decision-making processes. In addition, livelihood aspirations towards off- or on-farm activities promoted the likelihood of adoption. Due to the versatility of integrating fruit trees into farms, they can serve both market- and food security-oriented purposes and thus supporting livelihoods in multiple ways. This is confirmed by the positive results of adoption on household well-being in terms of food security and household income. In summary, the inclusion of cognitive factors such as ambition and livelihood aspirations can help explain the adoption decisions of smallholder households and support inclusive and customized project designs. In the long term, these findings could have the potential to ensure that development interventions are adopted more successfully.

Authors
Luzia Deissler, Kai Mausch, Ulrike Grote, Alice Karanja, Stepha McMullin

View Publication

2023
A complex web of interactions: Personality traits and aspirations in the context of smallholder agriculture

Some recent research began to shift the focus of development efforts away from income and yield to more diverse concepts that consider people’s intrinsic drivers and values, such as aspirations and personality traits. We aim to contribute to the literature by exploring the connections between intrinsic drivers. Hence, we analyze if and how the formation of aspirations relates to personality traits against the background of different socio-economic household characteristics. This research will help us provide practical insights for the successful design of development projects specifically tailored to the unique needs and aspirations of individuals and households. Our analyses are based on a primary data set of 272 smallholder farming households in rural and peri-urban Kenya. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) results show a significant positive correlation of personality traits with aspirations (openness; extraversion; conscientiousness), indicating that personality structures indeed correlate with the formation of aspirations in a rural, agricultural context. Furthermore, we show that household and respondent characteristics are associated with differences in education, income, and social aspirations. Considering intrinsic factors for the prediction of human behavior has the potential to increase the efficiency of agricultural development projects and policies. We conclude that a contextualized understanding of aspirations can provide useful insights for development practice aiming to support smallholder farmers’ livelihoods.

Authors
Luzia Deissler, Kai Mausch, Alice Karanja, Stepha McMullin, Ulrike Grote

View Publication

2022
Luzia presented at Tropentag
Description

Tropentag 2022 – International conference on „Can agroecological farming feed the world? Farmers’ and academia’s views“

The annual conference on research in tropical and subtropical agriculture, natural resource management and rural development (14.09.-16.09.2022) this year took place at the Czech University of Life Sciences Prague.

The conference is jointly organized by several universities and institutions and took place as a hybrid conference in Prague. Main objectives of the conference included resource management, environment, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food, nutrition and related sciences in the context of rural development, sustainable resource use and poverty alleviation. Luzia Deißler from the IUW presented her current research results on “The role of aspirations and personality traits for smallholder farmers’ decision to adopt agroforestry – Evidence from Kenya”.

Download

2021
Roundtable discussion – recording

For those that didn’t manage to join the Roundtable discussion, here the link to the recording

EVENT: RURAL ASPIRATIONS
EVENT: RURAL ASPIRATIONS

Building on the results and the breadth of the contributions within the Special Issue speakers will highlight research directions and gaps, then proceed to start a discussion on what development stakeholders can learn for their daily activities and project design.

Speakers will outline the difference that emerges within common approaches to looking at aspirations which we would argue are different concepts – i.e., aspirations and ambitions. The theoretical differentiation will be followed by a brief outline of various approaches on measuring those and lead into a group discussion on the implications of the differences for future research strategies. The second part of the roundtable will then focus on practical implications of the Special Issue for development planning and design. Speakers will outline the bottom-up view on aspirations as well as the top-down view in order to kick-start a group discussion on what we can learn from the different view and how these could be harmonized.

Read More

Resolving tensions between global development goals and local aspirations

The Sustainable Development Goals –- a set of 17 globally agreed-upon targets for the year 2030 -– are clearly listed and appear to be easy to subscribe to. However, development planning and the implementation of development projects are never straightforward.

Trade-offs between the 17 goals have to be considered. The pursuit of one goal may negatively affect the achievement of another. For instance, raising farmer incomes may lead to unaffordable food for the urban poor. How should development actors decide on priorities and how should they handle such trade-offs?

As the goals are so broad and multi-faceted, many development agencies focus on specific niches – such as wildlife conservation – that they feel passionate about or think they can contribute most to. Politicians need to prioritise available funds and often choose high visibility, prestige mega-projects such as highways, railway lines or airports.

Read More

SPECIAL ISSUE
SPECIAL ISSUE

Rural aspirations – livelihood decisions and rural development trajectories

Read More

Stories of change: Analyzing aspirations of rural women and men
Stories of change: Analyzing aspirations of rural women and men

Looking into the aspirations of rural people provides insights into how they earninvestmake decisions within the householdhold government accountablemake technology choices, and engage in other future-oriented behaviors.

While aspirations-based theories in economics have largely focused on people’s ‘capacity to aspire’, or rather their level of ambition relative to those around them, we use the term ‘aspiration’ to refer to what people aspire to do, with specific attention to the livelihood activities with which they wish to engage. Gender and age play an important role in aspiration formation. While aspirations of young people in agriculture have been studied, desires and ambitions of rural women have largely been overlooked. Yet, the topic is becoming even more important as many men migrate in search of more lucrative employment opportunities outside their rural homes, and many women assume the role of primary farmer.

One region where this is happening at scale is the eastern drylands of Kenya. In our recent study there, we interviewed 88 women and 50 men of all ages to understand where they see their future opportunities and what role farming plays in their aspired future.

Continue Reading

Rural aspirations – reflections for development planning, design, and localized effects
Rural aspirations – reflections for development planning, design, and localized effects
Abstract/Summary

In this editorial introduction to the Special Issue “Rural aspirations in Africa – Livelihood decisions and rural development trajectories” we outline current views on aspirations and their relevance for development research, projects, and approaches. Using several examples from Africa, we outline how the combination of the different theoretical perspectives, case studies and regional backgrounds provides deeper insights about the role of aspirations in shaping rural areas. The distinct entry points of the ‘bottom up’ local aspirations for future lives, the ‘top down’ aspirations as visions for change and the process of negotiating between these provide novel insights into directions for development action as well as for future research in the field of aspirations in the development arena.

Authors

Kai Mausch, Dave Harris, Javier Revilla Diez

View Publication

Not all about farming: understanding aspirations can challenge assumptions about rural development.
Not all about farming: understanding aspirations can challenge assumptions about rural development.
Abstract/Summary

Another Special Issue contribution online:

Rural development is a political topic in which debate has been more focussed on externally identified needs than on demands or aspirations of the rural population and polarised between the attractions of urban income earning opportunities and the importance of rural farming communities for national food provision. The heterogeneity of local aspirations and their implications for development have barely been considered. We explore the aspirations of residents of three contrasting regions in Kenya that vary in their agricultural and off-farm potential. We argue that opportunities are a major framing influence on aspirations but there is important, and routinely overlooked, diversity within the communities which could inform future options for effective development. We outline how development initiatives could be redesigned to align more closely with aspirations. However, aspirations are a complex concept and, while our approach offered novel insights, these would be enriched when combined with household survey data.

Authors

Kai Mausch, Dave Harris, Luke Dilley, Mary Crossland, Tim Pagella, Jules Yim, Emma Jones

View Publication

Luzia’s PhD

As part of my doctoral research, I am investigating the determinants and challenges of agroforestry technology adoption in sub-Saharan Africa. More specifically, the geographical focus is on Kenya and Zambia. The study focuses on smallholder households in rural Kenya and Zambia participating in the Fruit Tree Portfolio Project. In line with the project’s objectives, I analyze factors, particularly intrinsic aspects, that determine the uptake of agroforestry. In addition to general socioeconomic characteristics, I explicitly emphasize the role of livelihood aspirations in this process. In the Kenyan context, we examined the complex interactions between personality traits, aspirations, and agroforestry adoption and found significant positive correlations among these factors.

Given that aspirations appear to play an important role in the adoption of agroforestry, we suggest that they are particularly relevant to development projects. In addition, based on these results, we aim to identify patterns of livelihood strategies, including current cropping systems, on- or off-farm focus, and aspirations of smallholder households in rural Zambia. These patterns could provide a useful approach for designing targeted interventions. By understanding the goals and strategies of farming households, agricultural projects could adapt their approach to design interventions that are more attuned to the household level.

Gendered aspirations – Brief

About this Brief

This brief presents a study on the changing opportunity spaces of men and women in the drylands of eastern Kenya (Crossland et al., 2021). It sheds light on the dynamics of rural aspirations in relation to both gender and age within the themes of outmigration and feminisation of agriculture. Using a novel methodology combining short narratives with semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions, this research contributes to a more nuanced understanding of aspirations and the wider socio-cultural context within which they are embedded and makes several recommendations for progressing aspirations research. The purpose of the research is to provide a better understanding of people’s current situations, desired trajectories and the influences that shape these aspirations, so that researchers and development actors might better tailor their support options to meet the needs of different user groups by matching technologies to their strategies and demands.

Download

Aspiration for Zambia’s food tree crop portfolios
Aspiration for Zambia’s food tree crop portfolios

Since early 2021 the aspirations framework has been used under a project that aims to to ensure smallholder families have year-round access to nutritious foods while simultaneously diversifying income generating opportunities. Here we are using an aspirational assessment tool to enable the project to improve the matching of the portfolios to farmers’ needs and future visions. Assessing the connection of aspirations to adoption among participants of a previous portfolio project allows us to take aspirations more directly into account when designing and supporting the adoption of the portfolios in a new context. One of the guiding research questions here is: How can different portfolios of food trees and crops be tailored to suit different smallholder farming systems and farmers’ aspirations?

What’s the Story on Agriculture? Using Narratives to Understand Farming Households’ Aspirations in Meru, Kenya
What’s the Story on Agriculture? Using Narratives to Understand Farming Households’ Aspirations in Meru, Kenya
Abstract/Summary

Another Special Issue contribution online:

In the limited research on farming aspirations, little attention has been paid to the narratives which frame and shape them, and the ways in which the aspirations of those who farm intersect with the goals of extension services. Drawing on multimethod research conducted in Meru county, Kenya, we demonstrate how aspirations are not only situated within a consideration of personal circumstances, but are shaped in crucial ways by networks of relations and by the perceived possibilities aforded by material and cultural resources. We further highlight the accounts of state extension agents that link a lack of engagement with the desires and needs of those who farm to the failure of agricultural development initiatives. We argue that an engagement with aspirations opens up a route to understanding the obstacles and potentialities that matter to those who farm and, as such, might enable more responsive development initiatives centred on the perceptions and desires of those who farm.

Authors

Luke Dilley, Kai Mausch, Mary Crossland, Dave Harris

View Publication

Women’s Changing Opportunities and Aspirations Amid Male Outmigration: Insights from Makueni County, Kenya
Women’s Changing Opportunities and Aspirations Amid Male Outmigration: Insights from Makueni County, Kenya
Abstract/Summary

Another Special Issue contribution online:

In Makueni County, Kenya, an area experiencing intensifying migration lows, we investigate the aspired futures of rural men and women using a novel methodology combining a narrative-based survey tool, focus group discussions and semistructured interviews. Our indings indicate that, in the absence of men and presence of norms restricting women’s movement out of rural life, women are becoming increasingly engaged in farm management. Women’s aspirational narratives focused on commercialising farm activities, likely relecting their changing agricultural opportunity space and new realities as farm managers. We highlight that only considering aspirations at the household level overlooks difering individual contributions, agency over various household income streams and individuals’ changing roles throughout life. Based on our indings, we make recommendations for further aspirations research including explicit consideration of intrahousehold heterogeneity and how individual strategies and aspirations interrelate and are negotiated at the household level to build an overall livelihood strategy.

Authors

Mary Crossland, Ana Maria Paez Valencia, Tim Pagella, Kai Mausch, Dave Harris, Luke Dilley, Leigh Winowiecki

View Publication

How young Kenyans feel about farming goes against conventional wisdom
How young Kenyans feel about farming goes against conventional wisdom

Every year, 12 million young people enter the labour market across the African continent.

Economists and policy makers differ about how they should be absorbed into the labour market. Some experts believe that only agriculture can create enough jobs. Others argue for a focus on the agricultural sector and industrialisation especially with increasing urbanisation.

Choosing which policy avenue to follow requires a good understanding of the aspirations of young people.

Read More

Who wants to farm? Answers depend on how you ask: a case study on youth aspirations in Kenya.
Who wants to farm? Answers depend on how you ask: a case study on youth aspirations in Kenya.
Abstract/Summary

While there is a consensus that rural poverty has to be reduced, there are two opposing views on the role that agriculture can play in this regard: a “farm-based” and an “off-farm led” development paradigm where the respective other sector is merely a complementary income source during a transition period. The latter paradigm is supported by studies finding that rural youth in sub-Saharan-Africa, are not particularly interested in agriculture. However, policy discourse on youth in agriculture often situates their aspirations as either full-time farming or non-farming, thus either supporting or opposing one or the other of the two paradigms, while neglecting the shades of grey between these two extremes. Using a mixed methods approach – a household survey and a narrative-based tool called SenseMaker – to collect data from both adults and youth in 261 households in rural Kenya, this study suggests that this categorical understanding needs to be revisited to inform rural development strategies based on the actual aspirations of rural youth.

Authors

Katie LaRue, Thomas Daum, Dave Harris, Kai Mausch

View Publication

2020
Luzia – Introduction
Luzia – Introduction

Biography

I am Luzia Deißler, a PhD student at the Leibniz University Hannover and a research fellow with World Agroforestry since 2021. My PhD research is supported by the research scholarship by ATSAF, ACINAR (Academy for International Agricultural Research) which aims to connect new university researchers with CGIAR centers. I started my academic path with a BSc in Biology and adjusted my rather nature scientific focus by taking the master’s program of International Horticultural Economics. This change of perspective allowed me to start research in the field of developmental economics. I was introduced to Kai by my university supervisor Prof. Ulrike Grote and started my studies on intrinsic drivers and determinants of agroforestry adoption in Kenya and Zambia. From a nature scientist perspective, I value clear observations, but when considering human behavior, it is essential to also consider intrinsic aspects that might not be apparent at first sight. Hence, human decision making cannot be limited to a few observable economic factors. Therefore, understanding and quantifying people’s aspirations holds significant potential for explaining decision making with respect to numerous livelihood choices. Understanding the human behavior may be key to addressing current challenges.

University Hannover

Special Issue – coming soon
Special Issue – coming soon

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted everything everywhere causing delays, changes of plans and cancelation of plans. Adjustments had to be made for the special issue too. Despite this, 10 contributions have since been submitted and are under review. While we are waiting for the first papers to come online, a few thoughts on the pandemic and the opportunities to realign development efforts

Why measuring youths’ aspirations is key to sustainable and inclusive rural development
Why measuring youths’ aspirations is key to sustainable and inclusive rural development

Especially for young people, diverse portfolios for rural populations should be the core part of a well-thought out rural investment strategy, say researchers.

The first results of the Kenyan census conducted in 2019 reveal a gradual demographic transition towards smaller families coupled with a growing urban population.

Still, even for this dynamic African nation that recently rose to ‘middle-income’ status, its future inclusive prosperity and ability to reach the Sustainable Development Goals will depend on how the rural population, most of whom are farmers with a few acres each of rain-fed land, fare in the decade to come.

Rural households are the most vulnerable to the climate crisis because their livelihoods depend on erratic rainfall. Across sub-Saharan Africa, rural areas have higher rates of poverty, illiteracy and child mortality as well as less access to basic services, such as electricity and safe sanitation. The widening gulf between rural and urban zones is fuelling large-scale migration of rural youth to burgeoning African cities.

Read More

Not just farmers: understanding rural aspirations is key to Kenya’s future
Not just farmers: understanding rural aspirations is key to Kenya’s future

Understanding rural household aspirations and taking them seriously in development planning could offer great potential in shaping the future of rural spaces. – A short recap of what we have been working on in the past.

More updates to follow soon

Special Issue on aspiration
Special Issue on aspiration

The European Journal of Development Research just accepted our proposal for a Special Issue on rural aspirations entitled ‘Rural aspirations in Africa – Livelihood decisions and rural development trajectories’. Teaming up with the DFG funded research group ‘Future Rural Africa‘ we will provide a wide-ranging overview of research into the aspirations of rural people. Kai Mausch and Dave Harris will serve as guest editors alongside Javier Revilla Diez to coordinate the submissions from about 50 contributing authors across 15 manuscripts. The special issue will represent the coming together of a set of papers that are cross-methodological and cross-disciplinary in approach and examine rural aspirations across a range of subject areas including land use change and social-ecological transformations; migration; value chains; gender; and youth.

2019
Rethinking poverty eradication and food security through agriculture in Africa

MEDIA RELEASE:

Nairobi, Kenya, 28 November 2019 — Agriculture in Africa is expected to meet the dual objectives of providing food and helping people to escape poverty but, in practice, this is rarely possible on the small farms that cover the vast majority of the continent’s agricultural landscapes. It’s time for policymakers, agricultural researchers and practitioners to recognize the need to separate food security and poverty eradication, argue a team from World Agroforestry (ICRAF), International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, Bangor University and Oxford Martin School.

Read More

Poverty eradication and food security through agriculture in Africa: Rethinking objectives and entry points
Abstract/Summary

Agriculture in Africa is expected to meet the dual objectives of providing food and helping people to escape poverty. African agriculture is dominated by smallholdings and donors generally target their agricultural support at the smallholder sector. The expectation is that if the gap between actual and potential yields can be closed, smallholders will grow sufficient crops to feed their families, with a surplus to sell, thus meeting food security needs and bringing in an income to move them out of poverty. In practice, this is often not possible. While technologies already exist that can raise smallholder farmers’ yields 3 or 4 times, even under rainfed conditions, the small size of land available to them limits how much can be grown and the per capita income from agriculture is insufficient to allow people to move above the current World Bank-defined poverty line of US$1.90 per day. We link this finding with farmer typologies to further explain that there are large differences between individual farming households themselves in terms of their investment incentives and capability to benefit from field-level technologies that are aimed at increasing farm productivity. We argue for more differentiated policies for agricultural development in Africa and suggest that policymakers should be much more aware of the heterogeneity of farms and target interventions accordingly. It is important to understand where and for whom agriculture will have the main purpose of ensuring food and nutritional security and where and for whom there is the potential for significant increases in incomes and a contribution to wider economic growth. Let us recognize the distinctiveness of these targets and underlying target groups and work towards solutions that address the underlying needs.

Authors

A Gassner, D Harris, K Mausch, A Terheggen, C Lopes, RF Finlayson, P Dobie

View Publication

Sharing aspiration and sensemaker insights with UNEP
Abstract/Summary

UN Environment Programme and Cognitive Edge jointly hosted a panel discussion on “Behavioral Insights for environmental impact” at its headquarters in Nairobi on 5 September 2019.

The panel discussed how innovative methods and behavioral science can be used to deliver positive environmental impact by exploring new and innovative solutions and methods that can improve our role as agents of change in addressing the critical environmental challenges of our time.

In that context, the panel explored the following key issues:

  • What are the barriers to environmental change not meeting globally set goals and challenges?
  • How can we better use social, economic and environmental data in a complimentary way to drive our behaviors towards sustainable solutions?
  • Is there an opportunity to embed behavioral changes into our business models at all levels?

View the World Agroforestry contribution on Slideshare: Understanding farmer behavior and options to improve outcomes von World Agroforestry (ICRAF)

Or download it from the link below.

Download

Stories shared
Stories shared

Gathering stories from more than 600 households is easy, analysing the content takes much longer. Here is a word cloud preview of what stories have been shared.

2018
Youth Aspirations in Kenya
Youth Aspirations in Kenya
Introduction

My name is Katie LaRue and I am currently pursuing a Master Degree at Hohenheim University in Stuttgart, Germany. My studies revolve around environmental protection and agricultural food production, which seeks to answer the pressing problem of feeding a growing population sustainably. In culmination of my program, I wanted to see first hand the backbone of the world’s agriculture industry. So when I stumbled upon a flyer advertising a thesis opportunity in Kenya that would address the aspirations of rural farmers, I knew this was my chance. After a few months of tedious preparation, I arrived at the World Agroforestry Centre in Nairobi, Kenya and am well on my way to witnessing the

Katie LaRue
Katie LaRue

Biography

Master Student, Hohenheim University
Katie LaRue is a master’s student at Hohenheim University and a research fellow with the World Agroforestry Center, Nairobi. Her research delves into rural livelihood strategies and the puzzling questions surrounding the slow adoption rates of agricultural technologies amongst these households.  Her current work explores the connection between household aspirations and adoption rates in different agro-ecological zones within Kenya. Katie has a BSc in International Relations from Grand Valley State University and worked as an English teacher in Moscow, Russia for two years before pursuing her current degree in Environmental Protection and Agricultural Food Production. She was introduced to Kai Mausch and Dave Harris’ aspirations research through her supervisors Regina Birner and Thomas Daum and were eager to join the team to support her master thesis project.

Google Scholar

The enumerator training
The enumerator training

The enumerator training phase of the project, led by Jules Yim and Emma Jones, kicked off with a 3-day event at the World Agroforestry Centre in Nairobi, Kenya.

Quote: Kai: “I have run many enumerator training sessions and the enumerators had been part of several surveys as well. However, they really engaged during the training as they were fascinated by the different approach and really got excited about the stories they would be collecting.”

Jules: “After months of hard work reviewing and editing the instrument, we were ready to take it from a ‘lab’ environment into the real world. This can only be done in collaboration with our enumerators, whom we consider to be our partners in the field.”

After Emma set up the devices and the SenseMaker® app, Jules spent the morning presenting the concept of narrative research and gave a basic introduction to complex systems. This led to an overview of potential pitfalls and limitations in the field, and was followed by many intelligent questions from the enumerators about the approach and foreseen complications in the field. For example, ‘How do we interview “the spouse” in a setting where people have multiple wives?’; ‘What if the respondents don’t talk about agriculture at all?’. Kai then outlined the objectives of the Aspirations project and the important part the enumerators would play in it – they are not merely scribes or interviewers, but local facilitators and translators.

In the afternoon, the enumerators were instructed to immerse themselves in the training by becoming part of it. Each of them had to tell a story about their own aspiration. Following that, after having been briefed about the logistical intricacies of SenseMaker® interviewing, the enumerators were divided into groups of three and asked to interview each other in a simulation of the field work.

Enumerators were then sent into the ‘field’ – in this case the UN Avenue outside the ICRAF campus in Gigiri – to gather a minimum of two stories each from random people on the street. The exercise took about an hour and they returned both with stories and feedback about the process, which they reflected upon. Suggestions for edits to the instrument were also considered and implemented after consultation with the wider team.

On the final morning of the workshop, the decision was made to release the enumerators early as they had absorbed the training faster than expected, and could start to gather stories in their home areas.


Attendees: Kai Mausch, Dave Harris, Jules Yim, Emma Jones (Cynefin Centre), Mary Crossland, Katie LaRue

Survey design workshop
Survey design workshop

The design phase of the survey instrument (link to the survey tool) for this project, led by Jules Yim and Emma Jones, kicked off with a 2-day workshop at Bangor University, UK. Ellie Snowden, a researcher at Cynefin Centre, provided remote support via video conference.

Kai: “I was fascinated by their approach in designing the survey instrument. It appeared chaotic, yet was very structured. It was very interesting to witness how everything came together in the end.”

The session opened with an introduction to complexity science, narrative research and their relevance to human systems, in this particular case, aspirations. The team affirmed the objectives of the project and the themes that emerged from them. The literature review, based on previous publications and additional searches conducted prior to the workshop, was presented and then mapped to the themes and objectives.

Triads

The team properly commenced designing the survey tool. Each of the themes were redrafted as ‘modulators’, in complexity jargon, forces that modulate a complex adaptive system, within which we are in agreement that aspirations sit. Each modulator was then broken down into its individual components until a modulator landscape for the entire project was completed, and each modulator’s components reassembled into triads.

Jules: “After weeks of discussion, we were pleased to host the ICRAF and ICRISAT team at Bangor University. They proved that they were more than up to the intellectual and practical challenges that lay ahead.”

Dyads

All assumptions and hypotheses were spelt out across the team and from related literature with regards to aspirations; several were chosen to be tested in this project. Dyads are formed by making an assumption, e.g., that parents from rural households discourage their children from becoming farmers.

In the story shared, parents…

Encourage their children to become farmers <–> discourage their children from becoming farmers

Stones

Stones are normally designed for monitoring and evaluation. In their simplest form they consist of an XY axis, with ‘Stones’ labelled using items such as different stakeholder perspectives (‘How I saw it’, ‘How I think my father saw it’, etc.) or programme components (‘Water sanitation tablets’, ‘Plumbing’, ‘Sewage’, etc.) for the respondent to drag and drop onto the canvas.

In this project, a decision was made to design Stones to evaluate different perspectives in a household towards farming, and the risk-return mindset towards the various income streams a household may pursue, such as crops, livestock, employment, business opportunities, etc.

Prompting Questions

We kicked off by designing prompting questions, which can be any combination of text, photo or video. A decision was made to use text and after some deliberations we settled on – ‘Imagine your life 10 years from now; tell a story about how you got to that point from this present day.’

Analysis Categories

In the SenseMaker® environment, ‘analysis categories’ are typically configured as multiple-choice questions. Two types exist – 1) relating to the respondent, such as demographic ones around age, gender, household size, household income, geographical location, and 2) relating to the story shared by the respondent, such as emotional tone, frequency of occurrence, or to whom the respondent would tell the story. These categories allow the analysts/researchers to filter and slice the data during analysis, or create customized Boolean queries to compare and contrast patterns of distribution.

Review and Finalization

The input of this process was scribed into a document template by Ellie Snowden, and reviewed by the team within two weeks. The instrument was then configured into a SenseMaker® website. (link to site)


Attendees: Kai Mausch, Dave Harris, Jules Yim, Emma Jones, Ellie Snowden (Cynefin Centre), Mary Crossland (second day), Tim Pagella (Bangor University)

 

Marys story: Rural aspirations through a gender lens

I was first introduced to Dave Harris and Kai Mausch by my PhD supervisor at Bangor University, Tim Pagella. As a PhD student, my research explores how agricultural interventions to restore degraded lands can and cannot influence the livelihood trajectories of rural households. That is, the way that livelihoods change over time – and the extent to which innovations can reduce poverty and improve food security. Considering the increasing recognition that people’s aspirations influence their investment decisions, both in and out of farming, it was clear to Tim and me that understanding rural aspirations had important implications for the development, uptake and success of land restoration approaches. The types of restoration options a household may be willing to invest in will likely differ with their aspirations for the future. Compared to those who aspire to continue farming for the foreseeable future, households with aspirations to diversify away from agriculture may be less likely to invest in the often labour-intensive process of land restoration.

Tim: “I was involved in the initial thinking (with Dave and Kai) about the value of using the SenseMaker approach to understand smallholder aspirations in a development context. Mary’s preliminary work for her PhD had highlighted clear synergies between the direction her research was taking and what the SenseMaker team was researching, particularly in terms of gender, so it seemed a very natural fit. This type of research is inherently interdisciplinary, something which Mary is comfortable working with, and I felt her skill set complemented those of the broader team very well.”

The differentiated aspirations of men and women are also likely to have repercussions for land restoration, particularly in the context of male out-migration. In the drylands of eastern Kenya, a high proportion of men seek off-farm employment to diversify their incomes. This out-migration of predominantly able-bodied men is causing a redistribution of responsibilities within the household, with women left behind to manage both home and farm. A key aspect of my work therefore centres on gender dynamics and their interaction with restoration, and aims to answer questions such as: how do men and women differ in their aspirations and capacity to act upon them? How might changing gender roles and aspirations influence future livelihood portfolios and the adoption of land restoration practices?  Curious to see how SenseMaker could help illuminate the complexities of rural aspirations and changing role of agriculture in men and women’s lives, I joined the team in July 2018.

Mary Crossland
Mary Crossland

Biography

PhD student, Bangor University
Mary Crossland is a PhD student at Bangor University and a research fellow with the World Agroforestry Centre, Nairobi. Her research explores how agricultural interventions to restore degraded lands can and cannot influence the livelihood trajectories of rural households in the drylands of Kenya and Ethiopia, and the degree to which they can contribute to reducing poverty, improved food security and advancing gender equality. Mary has a BSc in Environmental Science from the University of Southampton (2010-2013) and worked as an agroforestry researcher at the Organic Research Centre (2015-2016) before pursuing a MSc in Agroforestry at Bangor University in 2016. Introduced to Dave Harris and Kai Mausch by her PhD supervisor Tim Pagella, she joined the team in July 2018 curious to see how using SenseMaker could help explore the changing role of agriculture in the lives of rural men and women.

Bangor University  Google Scholar Research Gate

Who are those people we call farmers?

Agricultural interventions should match household aspirations

Just about six percent of rural households in Kenya, aspire for their children to become farmers. This is highlighted through a recent study that interviewed 624 rural households from Embu and Kitui in eastern Kenya.

Read More

Adding an MSc student to the team
Adding an MSc student to the team

After an initial chat with Prof. Regina Birner from the University of Hohenheim, we agreed to look for an MSc student to work on the aspirations project and started advertising the opportunity.

Researchers recommend factoring in aspirations of rural households

Agricultural research must listen to farmers and their aspirations while designing effective technology solutions

Over 70% of sub-Saharan Africa’s one billion people are under the age of 30. While most rural households engage in agriculture, more and more young people have chosen to migrate to cities and away from farming. This trend has significant implications for research and investment efforts underway to transform sub-Saharan Africa’s agriculture.

Read More

Who are those people we call farmers? Rural Kenyan aspirations and realities
Abstract/Summary

Rural Kenyan households have different aspirations and income portfolio strategies, including agricultural intensification and income diversification. This article reports on a study that interviewed 624 households to explore rural aspirations and derive lessons for agricultural technology development and transfer. Though few households specialised in farming, many households self-identified as farmers and aspired to increase their agricultural income. Despite the prevalence of agricultural aspirations, few aspired for their children to have a future in farming. Combining aspirations with potential to invest, the article provides suggestions for targeting agricultural interventions. We need to start listening better to those people we call “farmers” to develop and offer innovations that meet their realities.

KEYWORDS: Environment (built and natural) – Agriculture, Food security, Labour and livelihoods – Poverty reduction, Technology, Sub-Saharan Africa

https://doi.org/10.1080/09614524.2018.1446909

Authors

Simone Verkaart, Kai Mausch, Dave Harris

View Publication

Households’ aspirations for rural development through agriculture
Abstract/Summary

In sub-Saharan Africa, rural households are the focus of many development efforts and the transformation of smallholder agriculture is one entry point for this process. Understanding farming households’ technology choices remains one of the most critical aspects of agricultural research in rural areas. However, many technologies that are known to be effective and potentially highly beneficial have remained widely unused. One reason is that predicting farmers’ decisions concerning agricultural technologies using conventional economic theories is flawed. In this article, we suggest that human aspirations have a much greater influence on technology choices than hitherto believed. We further argue that a better understanding of aspirations will improve the targeting of technology development by researchers. We propose distributed ethnography to empirically test the influence of human aspirations on technology choice. From such insight, we anticipate better research priority setting as well as more effective rural development strategies in general.

https://doi.org/10.1177/0030727018766940

Authors

Mausch, K., Harris, D., Heather, E., Jones, E., Yim, J., Hauser, M.

View publication

Jules Yim
Jules Yim

Biography

Senior Consultant, Cognitive Edge

In her role as a Senior Consultant with Cognitive Edge and a qualified SenseMaker® practitioner, Jules is involved in the design, capture and analysis of client projects. She has worked with public, private and third sector clients in Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Americas and Africa. She was based in Singapore (where she was born and raised) from 2009-2014, and relocated to the UK 2014-2018 to help set up the Cynefin Centre for Applied Complexity at Bangor University which has since housed CE’s non-commercial and public good projects.

Jules earned her BA (double major) in English Linguistics and Literature, and prior to CE worked in diverse industries such as high-end automotive tuning, e-commerce and wealth management.

Cognitive Edge

Emma Jones
Emma Jones

Biography

Emma is a Research Officer at the Cynefin Centre and has been working with SenseMaker®, in various research contexts, for over 2 years. Within the Cynefin Centre, Emma co-leads ‘The Making of Meaning’ programme: an international, collaborative project exploring how we find meaning and purpose in our lives in the 21st Century. A sub-branch of this project, Environment & Place, is dedicated to questions of culture, tradition, identity, heritage, conservation, agriculture, and climate change. Emma also holds a BSc in Psychology, and an MSc in Psychological Research, specialising in the cognitive neuroscience of decision-making. This project provides the perfect place to mesh these two interests together and explore how people find meaning in their environment, decisions and aspirations.

Cognitive Edge

The first meeting – Cynefin Centre perspective
The first meeting – Cynefin Centre perspective

The Cynefin Centre for Applied Complexity was officially launched in April 2016 with an inaugural lecture by Professor Dave Snowden at Pontio in Bangor University. Dave Harris, who was present, decided to get in touch with the Cynefin Centre team soon after to arrange a meeting.

Understanding the aspirations of rural households as they relate to agriculture (or not) had so far eluded the ICRISAT/ICRAF/Bangor University team, which was the problem statement Harris presented to the Cynefin Centre team at the first meeting. A decision was made to have the ICRAF/ICRISAT team over from Kenya for a session to scope the feasibility of the SenseMaker® approach and tool.

Initial consultations on our respective research foci led to spirited discussions about the viability of the narrative-based distributed ethnography approach in this field of study, especially when it involved the aspirations of rural households. This took up most of the first day, and at the start of the second day we properly delved into the design of a potential SenseMaker® project.

Amongst the outputs of this two-day workshop was an agreement to jointly bid for funding to pilot a SenseMaker® project in Kenya, and to publish, where appropriate.

Opening up new opportunities

The livelihood choices we were trying to study at the time were too complex to be captured using standard survey tools. We all went back to other commitments for a while until Dave Harris came across an announcement of an inaugural lecture by Dave Snowden at Bangor University. Prof. Snowden had just opened the Cynefin Centre at Bangor University that was intriguingly framed as a journey into complexity. The Cynefin approach seemed to directly address the problems we were facing at the time. After Dave Harris attended the talk by his namesake, he reached out to the rest of the team and shared several of Dave Snowden’s lectures that are available on YouTube. The whole team had a notion that the SenseMaker tool and Distributed Ethnography method that Dave Snowden and his team were using might be just what we needed to move forward. Consequently, we scheduled a face-to-face meeting with the Cynefin Centre team for October in Bangor in order to fully explore its potential use.

Dave “The Snowden lecture was a real eye-opener for me as it seemed to address all the problems we were facing in trying to understand the wider, longer-term aspirations of rural household members. Conventional household surveys were bedeviled by the ‘project effect’ in which respondents would tell us what they thought we wanted to hear, rather than what they really thought. This offered something new.”

2015
Sometimes plans do not work out
Sometimes plans do not work out

With the approval of the activity under CRP PIM, we reached out to the Department of Psychology at Bangor University, UK. This partnership was aimed at ensuring that the psychology of these very complex life choices could be accounted for.

Eleanor Heather joined the team and the work gained momentum. We started working on a background document that discusses the influence of behavioral biases on human decision-making, and organized a week-long workshop in Kenya to design a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE). The method involves asking individuals to state their preference over hypothetical alternative scenarios, goods or services. Each alternative is described by several attributes and the responses are used to determine whether preferences are significantly influenced by the attributes and their relative importance. We believed that this method would be effective in exploring the trade-offs involved in deciding among various possible income streams and investment options.

Kai “There was a huge buzz when we started working with Eleanor as everyone thought this would be a very interesting and fruitful collaboration and the method seemed to fit our needs to explore trade-offs very well. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out as planned, but that is part of research.”

After lengthy discussions on the influences that are likely to play a role in the decision processes of smallholder households, we agreed on a set of variables that we believed were key in shaping final income portfolios. Of course, these needed to be verified with the target group to ensure that they are understandable and relatable. However, holding an ad hoc discussion with a group of farmers began to cast some doubts on relatability, as the concepts we were hoping to address were highly abstract and long-term. The reality in rural areas appeared to be much more focused on immediate needs and short-term plans because of the unpredictability of farming and the limited options available to poor rural households. We went back to the drawing board and revised the initial set to include more focused and relatable variables that were then tested in two additional focus group discussions. Again, however, the narrow set of options and short-term factors that are necessary to run a DCE proved to be inappropriate for exploring longer-term aspirations of rural household members. This left us disappointed and worried that we would not be able to deliver what we had promised.

2014
Related projects join forces
Related projects join forces

Our colleague Simone Verkaart has been working on the link between diversified incomes and adoption of agricultural technologies for her PhD, so we were happy to bring her on board for this activity and expand the scope.

Simone “When Dave and Kai approached me with the option of joining the aspirations work and linking it to my then recently published paper on linking agricultural technology adoption to household income composition, I thought it would be an additional perspective and a great fit for my overall PhD thesis “poor farmers

Dr Kai Mausch
Dr Kai Mausch

Biography

Senior Economist

Kai Mausch has been working on rural development for more than 10 years, exploring solutions to rural poverty from both the agricultural as well as the non-agricultural perspective. Before joining ICRAF he worked for ICRISAT from 2010-2018 where he planned, coordinated and implemented economic projects and program components at both the regional and global level. Topics ranged from adoption, dissemination and impact evaluation to value chain analysis and improved targeting of agricultural interventions in rural areas. While there, he piloted and popularized tablet-based surveys and organized several episodes of the popular Kenyan TV show ‘Shamba Shape up’ to communicate research results and increase turnaround speed and broader adoption of farming options. Kai’s global work includes stints in Vietnam, where he worked on his PhD, Malawi and Kenya – both with ICRISAT. He received his MSc while working with ICIPE (Nairobi) and in 2009 received his PhD in Economics from the School of Economics and Management, Leibniz University of Hanover, Germany.

Google Scholar Research Gate

Dr Dave Harris
Dr Dave Harris

Biography

Dave is an Honorary Fellow at ICRISAT and an Honorary Lecturer at Bangor University, UK. Previously he was Senior Advisor to the Research Methods Group at the World Agroforestry Centre (2014-2017). He was co-manager of the DFID Plant Sciences Research Programme at Bangor between 1995 and 2011 and then Principal Scientist (Agro-ecosystems/Climate Change) with ICRISAT based in Nairobi, Kenya (2011-2013). He has 35 years; experience of agricultural research in less-developed countries, particularly in the fields of crop physiology, agronomy and participatory on-farm collaboration, including long-term assignments in India (1982-1984), Botswana (1987-1992) and St. Lucia (1992-1995) and many shorter assignments throughout South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. His current research focuses on understanding why rural households adopt/don’t adopt/dis-adopt improved agricultural technologies and on the consequences of farm size for rural livelihoods.

Research Gate

What we planned
What we planned

Rainfed farming in Sub-Saharan Africa is risky, hard work and small parcels of land limit the returns from agriculture that many farming families could achieve. Engagement in other income generating activities such as wage labour, casual labour, running small businesses, etc., is widespread. These off-farm and non-farm activities have implications for the attributes that farmers value in agricultural technologies and more generally, for how they approach their own farming activities. The ongoing debate about those implications has two contrasting arguments:

  1. Generating a higher proportion of household income outside the farm will enable and encourage farmers to take more risks on their farms, and so increase the possible returns from increased investment.
  2. Increasing the share of household income generated through potentially insecure off-farm employment will lead to the farm being treated as a safety net. Farmers will therefore be more risk-averse in their farming activities, preferring lower yields but more secure crop and livestock choices and practices.

Dave Harris “I have been working on the ‘small farm problem’ for a long time and to be able to explore how we can better assist smallholder households has been on my mind since I got into this line of research.”

Whichever of the above emerges as the dominant paradigm in the smallholder sector will have implications for both technology generation and transfer, and hence for the CGIAR as the demand for technology will look very different in the two scenarios. If farmers have higher risk tolerances, research energy should be focused on input-intensive varieties with high expected yields, whereas research should focus on more resilient crops with greater resistance to abiotic and biotic stressors if farmers are not willing to take risks. The resulting trade-off of lower expected yields (and therefore income or ‘value’) would be justified because the farm-generated income is viewed only as a safety net.

A joint proposal from ICRISAT and ICRAF to explore this issue was submitted to CRP PIM for funding from 2014 under the title, “How does the income composition of rural households influence preferences for, and adoption of, new agricultural technologies for smallholder farms? A discrete choice experiment exploring attribute trade-offs to inform technological research and extension.”

Donors


Parts of this work was undertaken as part of, and funded by the CGIAR Research Program on Grain Legumes and Dryland Cereals (GLDC) and supported by CGIAR Fund Donors.



Early parts of this project have been supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)


atsaf via ACINAR (Academy for International Agricultural Research)


Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany


Project Team


Dr Kai Mausch
Senior Economist (CIFOR-ICRAF)
Dr Dave Harris
Senior Associate (CIFOR-ICRAF)
Jules Yim
Cynefin Centre
Emma Jones, MSc
Cynefin Centre
Dr Tim Pagella
Lecturer in Forestry (Bangor University)
Dr Mary Crossland
Associate Scientist, CIFOR-ICRAF
Katie LaRue
Masters Student, University of Hohenheim and ICRAF
Dr Luke Dilley
Akita International University (Japan), Research Associate (ICRAF)
Luzia Deissler, MSc
PhD candidate, University of Hannover and CIFOR-ICRAF

About Project


 Start Date: Jan, 2014
 Due Date: Dec, 2025
 Project Status:


Institutions Involved