Decision-makingindevelopmentrarelyconsidersuncertaintyinprojectbenefitsandcostsandtheriskofprojectfailure.Lackofappropriatetoolsforex-anteanalysisunderconditionsofdatascarcityconstrainstheabilityofdecision-makerstoanticipateprojectoutcomes.Businessanalysistechniquescanhelpinsuchsituations,buttheyhaverarelybeenappliedindevelopmentcontexts.WeusetheprinciplesofAppliedInformationEconomicstodevelopadecisionmodelforawatersupplyintervention.IntheproposedHabaswein- WajirWaterSupplyProjectinNorthernKenya,wateristobeextractedfromamajoraquifernearHabasweinandpipedtothecityofWajir.Ateamofeightexpertsdevelopedamodelincludingallcosts,benefits,andrisksconsideredimportantforprojectsuccess.Afterestimationtraining,theseexpertsexpressedtheiruncertaintyforabout100variablesinthemodelwithprobabilitydistributions.WeusedMonteCarlosimulationtoprojectdecisionoutcomes,andPartialLeastSquares(PLS)regressiontoidentifycriticaluncertaintiesaffectingthedecision.Theprojectwasfoundtoberiskyformoststakeholders,mainlyduetotheriskofpoliticalinterferencecausedbywatersupplyconcernsinHabasweinandduetounclearprofitabilityofthewatersupplybusiess.Uncertaintiesabouthowtovaluedecreasinginfantmortalityandreductioninwater- bornediseaseincidencewerealsocritical.Thegreatesthydrologicalriskwassaltwaterintrusionintotheaquifer.Carefulwelldesign,inclusiveprojectplanningandbenefitsharingcouldraisethechanceofprojectsuccess.Theanalysisimprovedunderstandingofthedecisionbyallstakeholders,someofwhichchangedtheiropinionsonthepipeline,requestedmoremeasurements,orproposedalternativewatersupplyoptions.Decisionanalysiscanhelpclarifydecisionuncertaintiesandoutcomeexpectationsandtherebyimprovedecision-makingprocesses,especiallyindata-scarceareas.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2015.00016Altmetric score:
Dimensions Citation Count:
Publication year
2022
Authors
Luedeling E; Oord A; Kiteme B; Ogalleh S A; Maimbo M M; de Leeuw J; Shepherd K D
Language
English
Keywords
water supply, groundwater, crop, environmentally sustainable, economic feasibility
Geographic
Kenya
