Pastoral Farming in the Ili Delta, Kazakhstan, under Decreasing Water Supply: An Economic Assessment

The Ili Delta with an extension of 8.000 km2 is the largest natural delta region of CentralAsia. It contains large areas of pastures, which are dominated by Phragmites australisreed vegetation. For local population, pastoral farming is one of the most important landuse forms and income sources. The pastures are almost entirely dependent on Ili River’srunoff. The Ili River is a transboundary river shared by China, upstream, and Kazakhstan,downstream. Due to the expansion of irrigated agriculture, as well as, shortcomings of intergovernmentalagreements, the Ili Delta is threatened by water shortages and subsequentpasture degradation.Against this background we aimed at assessing these threats from an economic point ofview and analysed the economy of the pastoral system in the Ili Delta in its current stateand in three scenarios including different assumption on water supply: (I) sufficient watersupply (normal situation), (II) decreasing water supply, and (III) significantly decreaseof water supply (worst case). Data was collected in 2015 through 35 farm and additionalexpert interviews. Production parameters were calculated and entered to a cost-benefitanalysis, in order to estimate profits of livestock keeping for three scenarios.Three different farm types, family-, medium- and large-scale farms, were identified ata range between subsistence and market orientated commercial production. Beef cattle,24.000 animals in 2015, dominate livestock throughout the Ili Delta. Interviews revealed acontinuous decrease of water flow into the Ili Delta over the last few years. This alreadyresulted in a qualitative and quantitative reduction of pastures at margins of the Delta,where most of villages are located. Big commercial farms produce at the upper stretch ofIli River, whereas villages at the underflow are almost cut off water supply. As adaptionstrategy in face of pasture degradation, most farmers purchase winter fodder. According toour calculations, this significantly reduces profits of worst case in comparison to normal situation(by 80 or 90 %) for all farm types. We conclude that under further decreasing watersupply, especially downstream village population will have to reduce livestock significantlyor out migrate from the delta region completely.

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