Impacts of and adaptation to climate variability and climate change in the East African community - a focus on the agricultural sector

Rationale This paper is the third in a series of reports that are aimed at discussing the vulnerability of African countries to climatic hazards, the meaning of climate change for these countries and the existing efforts in terms of policy and research to tackle the climate problem. The first two reports focused on the west-African Sahel and southern Africa, respectively. This one deals with East Africa, and more specifically the East African Community (EAC) that regroups Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. The focus is on agriculture simply because this sector is the mainstay of the majority of Afri - can economies. Agriculture is the base for food security, the biggest employment provider, a major contributor to the GDP, and an important source of foreign exchange earnings. At the same time, agriculture is one the most vulnerable sectors to climate variability and climate change, especially under rainfed conditions. It is a widely held belief that climate change is unavoidable and any effort undertaken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions today will be useful only to avoid the further warming of the globe in the future. The atmosphere, it is now understood, is characterised by a certain inertia, which means that the GHG load that has accumulated in it for centuries as a result of human activities will take a long time to subside. Until that happens (this can take several decades), these heat-trapping gases will continue to warm the earth and disturb the global climate. The United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recognises this fact. Indeed, the Convention recommends that, while the global community is looking for an effective framework to stabilise and reduce GHG emissions, it should also find ways and means to adapt to the unavoidable changes that are already occurring and those that will occur in the near future. There are many signs that climatic changes are already happening as suggested by the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and many other reliable sources. The Kyoto Protocol, places great emphasis on mitigation efforts whether through the reduc - tion of GHG emissions or the creation of GHG sinks in the terrestrial biosphere. However, even if the most effective reductive measures are implemented, the impacts will not be seen immediately. Therefore, developing or reinforcing adaptive mechanisms to deal with the nega - tive effects of climate change must be a high priority.

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