Quantitative estimates of riskof food grain shortage are given for the plateau Mossi in Burkina Faso and its sub-regions (ORD). These estimates are based on agricultural statistic collected in Burkina Faso and on comsuption requirements. The risks are expressed in terms of the probability distribution of the definit or surplus in food grain availability. For the Mossi Plateau, the expected shortage in food grain (275.000) tonnes is large compared to the standard deviation of this shortage (55.000 tonnes). A sketch is given of a method to improve estimates from agricultural statistic by using crop yield models. Next, the impact of agricultural diversity on risks is discussed. The standard deviation of the total yield of a combination of two crops depands not only on the standard deviation of the yields of each of the crops, but also on their correlation. Risk reduction farm level does not follow directly from choosing components (e.g., cultivars) with low variability, but depends also on the correlation between the components. Diversity reduction vs risk reduction is discussed on the basis of simulated yields of sorghum varieties, and related to the ecological niche concept.
Publication year
1988
Authors
Schweigman C; Snijders T; Van Andel J; van Noordwijk, M.
Language
French
Geographic
Burkina Faso
