Understanding and planning for adaptation and mitigation of climate change is crucial toimplementation of sustainable development and effective environmental and biological conservationin the Asian Highlands region. Climate change is and has been on-going, and is already evidentand widely observed across the region. The results of a spatial analysis, based upon an ensembleof CIMP5 Earth System Model projections, indicate rapid and drastic changes across the AsianHighlands region with significant and increasing spatial displacement of historically “normal”distributions of bioclimatic conditions. As a consequence, significant and increasing biophysical andbiological perturbance for biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and agricultural and pastoralsystems, can be expected to become increasingly prominent in the medium-term future under all ofthe IPCC-developed Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), i.e. emission scenarios.The magnitude of predicted change indicated by our analysis points to a prolonged period of profoundimpacts on terrestrial ecosystems, biodiversity, hydrological cycles, and ecosystem services acrossthe Asian Highlands. This will be amply evident and well under way by 2050, as a result of warmingand climate disruption, and the shifting of bioclimatic conditions spatially, particularly within highlyheterogeneous mountainous terrain and the high elevation highland areas of this region. This changewill affect and have increasingly substantial and direct impacts on human health and livelihoodsthroughout this region as this century progresses. Likewise, effectiveness of both conservation effortsand sustainable development will be affected as ecological conditions across the region change, forexample, allowing for newly invasive species or going beyond limits conducive for endangeredspecies currently found within narrow niches or designated protected areas.There is an overriding necessity to recognize the now central role of a dynamic and rapidly changingclimate and bioclimatic conditions across the Asian Highlands region, and a need to incorporate,mainstream and plan for adaptation within most aspects of sustainable development and conservationplanning, efforts and policy. The spatial articulation of results from this analysis allow for a detailedand geographically referenced overview of the potential impacts of this projected change onbioclimatic conditions across the region. Results are articulated and summarized by the major riverbasins comprising the Asian Highlands region.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5716/WP16006.PDFAltmetric score:
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Publication year
2016
Authors
Zomer R J; Trabucco A; Xu, J.; Wang M
Language
English
Keywords
climate change, sustainable development, hydrobiology
