Despite promises from world leaders, deforestation in tropical regions has continued at an unsustainable rate, releasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and degrading the environment. Could outcomes improve if forest policies change?

The deforestation and carbon emission simulators are beginning to answer that question.

Aimed at decision-makers, stakeholders and researchers, these tools rely on statistical analysis of environmental and physical variables to predict where deforestation is likely to occur under different policy scenarios in key ecosystems of Brazil, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) up to 2030.

“The platforms will save time and effort for policymakers and planners in a rapidly changing field,” said Richard Van der Hoff of the Federal University of Minas Gerais. “When governments change, this can result in policy changes,” he said, “and the methodology for measuring the results of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is also changing quickly. It’s a lot of work for technical teams in governments, especially at the state and local level, to keep up with all these changes.”

This work was commissioned as part of CIFOR-ICRAF’s Global Comparative Study on REDD+ (GCS REDD+) and developed by researchers at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) and the Territorial Intelligence Centre (CIT) in partnership with CIFOR-ICRAF.

Brazil REDD+ Platform

This interactive platform allows policymakers in Brazil to explore the reasons for forest loss in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, calculate carbon credits, and analyse the potential impacts of policies aimed at reducing deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions.

Planners can model forest loss and carbon emissions for the entire biome or focus on a state or municipality. The tool allows them to compare a business-as-usual policy scenario for 2023–2035 with the projected results that could be expected if the nation’s Deforestation Prevention and Control Plans (PPCDs) are fully implemented and enforced.

This tool is currently only available in Portuguese

Learn more

• Access the platform
• Nova ferramenta permite que os formuladores de políticas florestais do Brasil vejam o futuro

SimPeru

Planners in Peru can use this simulator to model future deforestation under a business-as-usual scenario or under a scenario that meets Peru’s Paris Agreement pledges for carbon emission reduction.

Users can explore the data for the entire country or filter by region, department, or land-use category – including protected areas, forests zoned for timber production, native communities and peasant communities.

This tool is currently only available in English

Learn more

• Download DinamicaEGO software
• Download SimPeru
• Tutorial for the SimPeru model
• Modeling future deforestation in Peru

SimDRC

SimDRC is a specialized tool designed to address deforestation in the Congolian tropical moist forest. It relies on statistical analysis of environmental and physical variables to predict where deforestation is likely to occur until 2030. SimDRC also calculates deforestation emissions, making it a valuable resource for policymakers and researchers; the model provides insight into where deforestation may occur based on historical trends and estimates the resulting emissions.

Learn more

• Download DinamicaECO software
• Download SimDRC