CIFOR-ICRAF s’attaque aux défis et aux opportunités locales tout en apportant des solutions aux problèmes mondiaux concernant les forêts, les paysages, les populations et la planète.

Nous fournissons des preuves et des solutions concrètes pour transformer l’utilisation des terres et la production alimentaire : conserver et restaurer les écosystèmes, répondre aux crises mondiales du climat, de la malnutrition, de la biodiversité et de la désertification. En bref, nous améliorons la vie des populations.

CIFOR-ICRAF publie chaque année plus de 750 publications sur l’agroforesterie, les forêts et le changement climatique, la restauration des paysages, les droits, la politique forestière et bien d’autres sujets encore, et ce dans plusieurs langues. .

CIFOR-ICRAF s’attaque aux défis et aux opportunités locales tout en apportant des solutions aux problèmes mondiaux concernant les forêts, les paysages, les populations et la planète.

Nous fournissons des preuves et des solutions concrètes pour transformer l’utilisation des terres et la production alimentaire : conserver et restaurer les écosystèmes, répondre aux crises mondiales du climat, de la malnutrition, de la biodiversité et de la désertification. En bref, nous améliorons la vie des populations.

CIFOR–ICRAF publishes over 750 publications every year on agroforestry, forests and climate change, landscape restoration, rights, forest policy and much more – in multiple languages.

CIFOR–ICRAF addresses local challenges and opportunities while providing solutions to global problems for forests, landscapes, people and the planet.

We deliver actionable evidence and solutions to transform how land is used and how food is produced: conserving and restoring ecosystems, responding to the global climate, malnutrition, biodiversity and desertification crises. In short, improving people’s lives.

Increasing DryDev’s effectiveness and efficiency through probabilistic decision modelling

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This working paper describes the Decision Analysis work done on the Drylands Development Programme (DryDev) in Sub-Saharan Africa. The programme was designed to address water management, food security and rural economic development in the drylands of Kenya, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. The initiative was geared towards supporting the transition of smallholder households from subsistence farming and reliance on emergency aid towards more sustainable agribusiness enterprises. Decision Analysis was used as a quantitative ex-ante impact assessment tool to prioritize interventions based on their projected impacts. The assessment simulated the potential of four interventions in six project sites of Eastern Kenya, incorporating risk and uncertainty in decision modelling. The result delivered to the decision makers was a range of plausible outcomes from a cost benefit analysis and a description of the variables with the highest critical uncertainties whose measurement would most facilitate decision-making. This paper describes the modelling process, which was both participatory and probabilistic, for each intervention. It gives details on the quantitative approach used for each of the four interventions separately, highlighting the benefit, cost and risk variables and the interactions between them. It then discusses the results of each decision model and from these makes recommendations to the decision makers. The penultimate section highlights the limitations and constraints faced by the analysis, and this is followed by general conclusions. The DryDev Programme is funded by the Netherlands’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with ICRAF as the lead implementing agency and SNV, CARITAS, ADRA and World Vision as implementing partners.

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5716/WP17107.PDF
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    Année de publication

    2017

    Auteurs

    Tamba, Y.; Muchiri, C.; Shepherd, K.; Muinga, G.; Luedeling, E.

    Langue

    English

    Mots clés

    mathematical simulation, decision making, impact assessment, calibration, net present value, semiarid zones, soil

    Géographique

    Kenya, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger

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