This document discusses using probabilistic decision tools and modeling approaches for evidence-based impact evaluation and development policy decisions. It argues that traditional scientific methods are not well-suited for studying complex, real-world agricultural systems due to their interdisciplinary nature and many uncertainties. Instead, it advocates adopting a decision analysis approach which (1) incorporates all important system aspects, (2) models the system using all available information including uncertainties, (3) identifies key uncertainties, and (4) recommends options based on expected outcomes to support decisions that must be made without perfect information. The document provides a case study on using decision analysis to evaluate options for reducing reservoir sedimentation in Burkina Faso.
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