This document summarizes research on land use change and ecosystem services trade-offs under uncertainty in rubber agroforestry systems in Indonesia. An agent-based land use model was developed to simulate different scenarios, including business as usual, subsidies, and payments for ecosystem services schemes. The model found that PES reduced carbon emissions and biodiversity loss compared to other scenarios. Uncertainty in crop yields and prices was also modeled over 30 years. PES was found to substantially increase farm profits and reduce income variability under different policy options and payment levels. While PES for agroforestry alone increased agroforest area and conservation, PES for all perennial land uses increased employment but reduced agroforest extent.
You can play the slide directly on slideshare. Please click here
